” 辅导MIS275留学生程序、 写作Analytics程序、 写作PythonMIS275 Decision Analytics Assignment 2 Trimester 2, 2020 Page 1DEAKIN BUSINESS SCHOOLDEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND BUSINESS ANALYTICSMIS275 Decision AnalyticsAssignment Two: Simulation of Technology Project SelectionBackgroundThis is an individual assignment. The modelling work should be submitted online in the Assignment Folder as asingle MS Excel file with the required information in clearly labelled separate worksheets. In addition, you arealso required to submit a report that summarises your models and results. Your report must be in MS Word fileformat. Any other file format, such as pdf, is NOT acceptable and will not be marked. In summary, two filesshould be submitted one MS Excel spreadsheet and one MS Word file.The assignment has six sections:1. Model description, conceptual model, and assumptions2. Spreadsheet-based deterministic decision model3. Scenario analysis4. Spreadsheet-based stochastic decision model including justification for the choice of distribution5. Simulated distribution for each output and a risk analysis6. Report.The requirements Of each section are detailed below. The breakdown of marks (total is 30) is given in theAssignment 2 Rubric at the end of this document.Percentage of Final grade 30%Due date Sunday 27 September 2020 at 8pm AEDTThe assignment must be submitted by the due date electronically in CloudDeakin. When submittingelectronically, check that you have submitted the work correctly by following the instructions. Please note thatwe will NOT accept any assignment or part of the assignment submitted after the deadline or via Email.Any request for an extension must be negotiated at least one week prior to the above deadline by email. Deakinpolicy for late Submission: 5% will be deducted from the 30 marks allocated to this assessment task for eachday or part day That the assessment is late, up to five days. Penalties also apply on weekend days and publicholidays. When work is submitted more than Five days after the due date, the task will not be marked, and thestudent will receive 0% for the task.Assurance of Learning 辅导MIS275留学生作业、 写作Analytics作业This assignment assesses following Graduate Learning Outcomes and related Unit Learning Outcomes:Graduate Learning Outcome (GLO) Unit Learning Outcome (ULO)GLO1: Discipline-specific knowledge andcapabilities: appropriate to the level of studyrelated to a discipline or profession.GLO3: Digital literacy: using technologies to find,use and disseminate informationGLO4: Critical thinking: Evaluating informationusing critical and analytical thinking and judgmentULO1: Apply decision models optimisation techniques toconceptualise andrepresent a business scenarioULO2: Apply optimisation Software tools to find optimaldecisions for a given business scenarioULO3: Interpret and analyse the results; investigate theassumptions of the decision modelFeedbackPrior to submissionStudents are able to seek assistance from the teaching staff to ascertain whether the assignment conforms tosubmission guidelines. Please post your questions on CloudDeakins discussion forum for Assignment 2.After submissionYour assignment feedback will be returned in the rubric via CloudDeakin with an overall mark and comments.MIS275 Decision Analytics Assignment 2 Trimester 2, 2020 Page 2Assignment Details:Acme Group Inc. is a multinational strategy consultancy with global headquarters in Melbourne, Australia.The company offers strategic solutions to its clients and has an annual revenue of $500M. In order tomaintain their competitive position in the marketplace Acme Group needs to continually look foropportunities to invest in new technologies. The Chief Information Officer, Jane Porter, is currentlyconsidering twelve technology proposals put forth by three divisions within the Group Marketing, RD,and HR.A number of the proposals are for joint projects, to be undertaken with partner organisations which AcmeGroup has well-established strategic alliances.Each division has provided Jane with the capital expenditures required for each project over the next threeyears and, based on the expected revenue to be generated by each project, the NPV of each project as shownbelow, and the ownership %.Projectno.Division Ownership%Capital expenditure* ($M) NPV* ($M)Year 1 Year 2 Year 31 Marketing 100% 2.5 1.0 1.0 0.62 Marketing 33% 5.0 3.0 3.0 1.83 Marketing 50% 1.0 2.0 4.0 0.84 Marketing 100% 7.5 5.0 3.0 3.15 Marketing 75% 2.0 4.0 8.0 2.26 RD 50% 10.0 3.0 3.0 1.87 RD 100% 7.5 7.5 3.0 4.18 RD 100% 8.0 7.0 6.0 2.89 RD 67% 4.0 6.0 8.0 3.810 HR 100% 1.0 2.0 4.0 1.011 HR 50% 7.0 5.0 3.0 2.612 HR 100% 15.0 4.0 4.0 3.4*The capital expenditures And NPV for each project are subject to the ownership %. For example, should project 5 be funded, capitalexpenditures for the Acme Group will amount to 75% of the stated figures, or $1.5M, $3.0M, and $6.0M over the three years, for anNPV of $1.65M. The other quarter of the expenditures will be funded by a strategic ally, which will be entitled to quarter of thestated NPV. By contrast, the Acme Group will provide 100% of the required capital expenditures for project 1, for a NPV of $0.6M.The CEO, Edgar Burroughs, after Consulting with the Chief Financial Officer, John Clayton, has given Jane anoverall three-year budget of $100 million for the set of projectsshe approves, with a maximum of $40 millionavailable in any one year.Jane has now tasked you with developing a spreadsheet‐based decision model that can use to explore thetwelve investment alternatives and their associated risks.As a starting point, she wants you to develop a spreadsheet model using the Deterministic model worksheetprovided in the assignment spreadsheet. This worksheet has four sections: Inputs, Decisions, Calculatedvalues, and Summary values and Outputs.Jane wants the spreadsheet To automatically update all tables and results each time she the enters 0s and1s in cells O26:O37. In that way, so can see the results for any set of projects that she wants to considerfunding.MIS275 Decision Analytics Assignment 2 Trimester 2, 2020 Page 3The information that Jane is particularly interested in is the following:1. Number of projects undertaken in each division2. Capital expenditures ($M) – company wide and by division. Jane also wants to see the calculatedvalues in cells P26:AA37, in case she needs to see a full breakdown of capital expenditure.3. Whether any expenditure limits are exceeded.4. Table of ROI by project. Jane prefers to compare percentages rather than absolute numbers. For thisreason, she wants you to divide each of the project NPVs through by the total capital expenditurefor each project and report the ROI percentage.When you have completed the deterministic decision model, Jane wants you to use this as the basis fordeveloping a spreadsheet-based stochastic decision model in the other worksheet.In this Stochastic model worksheet, she wants you to apply triangular distributions to each capitalexpenditure and to each NPV.Jane wants you to treat all of the capital expenditures in the page 2 table as the most likely values. Jane thenwants you to set the minimum and maximum values at 15% below and 30% above the most likely values, tocounter the common bias of under-estimating costs.She also wants you to treat all of NPVs in the page 2 table as the most likely values. She then wants theminimum and maximum values set at 20% below and 15% above the most likely values, to counter thecommon bias of over-estimating the NPV.Once you have completed the development of your Stochastic model, Jane wants you to do somepreliminary analysis for her.She wants you to consider three sets of projects that satisfy the four budget constraints and look promisingin terms of total NPV. Her one stipulation is that each set must include at least project from each division.She wants you to perform a comparative analysis of the three sets and write up your findings in a report. Inparticular she wants you to Provide a clear analysis of the risks faced with each the three sets of projects.MIS275 Decision Analytics Assignment 2 Trimester 2, 2020 Page 4Your submission will be assessed across these six sections for a total unit mark of 30%:Section 1: Model description, conceptual model, and assumptions (File: MS Word; 5 marks) Provide a brief overview of the model Include a conceptual model Note any relevant assumptions.Section 2: Spreadsheet-based deterministic decision model (Files: MS Word Excel; 5 marks)Complete all parts of the spreadsheet-based deterministic decision model. All cells displaying calculatedvalues, summary values and output values must contain the underlying Excel formulas.Section 3: Scenario analysis (Files: MS Word Excel; 5 marks)This section relates to Topic 7. Use Excels scenario analysis to investigate the impact that best and worstscenarios, for both capital expenditure and NPV, have on the summary values and output values. The choiceof best and worst scenarios is yours.Section 4: Spreadsheet-based stochastic decision model including justification for the choice ofdistribution (Files: MS Word Excel; 5 marks)This section relates to Topic 8. Complete all parts of the spreadsheet-based stochastic decision model.Justify the choice of probability distribution.Section 5: Simulated output distribution and a risk analysis (Files: MS Word Excel; 5 marks)This section relates to Topic 9. This requires you to undertake a risk analysis based on simulation modelling,in order to quantify the Risks associated with problem.Section 6: Report (File: MS Word; 5 marks)The report should be a standalone document. It should include:1. A brief description of the stochastic model (maximum 100 words)2. The conceptual model and any assumptions behind the model.3. The deterministic decision model copied from the spreadsheet.4. The best- and Worst-case scenarios chosen, and a discussion of the consequences.5. The stochastic decision model copied from the spreadsheet.6. Justification for the choice of probability distribution.7. Risk analysis report based on the simulation modelling.MIS275 – Decision Analytics Assignment 2 Trimester 2, 2020 Page 5Rubric for Assignment 2Performance LevelsCriteriaYET TO ACHIEVE MINIMUM STANDARD MEETS STANDARD EXCEEDS STANDARDPoor (0‐49) Satisfactory (50‐59) Good (60‐69) Very good (70‐79) Excellent (80‐100) FormatModel description,conceptual Model,and assumptionsULO1/GLO1Total: 5 marks0Conceptual modelis inappropriate ornot clearlyoutlined1.5A vague conceptualmodel is given, withseveral modelling errors2.5An appropriate conceptualmodel is given. Relationshipsare mostly correctly specified3A clear conceptual model isgiven. Relationships are mostlycorrectly specified3.5A very Clear conceptual modelis given. All components aremodelled correctly in a clearway5A very clear conceptual model is given. Allcomponents are modelled correctly in aclear and innovative fashionMS Wordreport0 – 1.4 Marks 1.5 – 2.4 Marks 2.5 2.9 Marks 3.0 3.4 Marks 3.5 3.9 Marks 4 5 MarksDecision modelsULO1,3/GLO1,4Total: 5 marks0Decision modelsremain incompletewith some formulasor values missing1.5Decision Models arecomplete. All stochasticinputs can only displayaverages2.5Decision models are complete.Some stochastic inputs canonly display fixed values3Decision models are complete.All stochastic inputs displayappropriate random values.There are errors in fixed inputsor calculated values3.5Decision models are complete.All stochastic inputs displayappropriate random values.Only errors are in someformulas For outputs5Decision models are complete. Allstochastic inputs display appropriaterandom values. All formulas in the modelsare correctMS WordreportExcelspreadsheet0 – 1.4 Marks 1.5 – 2.4 Marks 2.5 2.9 Marks 3.0 3.4 Marks 3.5 3.9 Marks 4 5 MarksScenario analysisULO1,2,3/GLO1,3,4Total: 5 marks0Scenario analysisreport is notincluded or isinappropriate1.5Some possible scenarioanalyses are presented,but not clearly2.5Most of the importantscenarios are considered forthe analysis3Most of the importantscenarios are considered forthe analysis and elaboration onthem is presented clearly3.5All of the main scenarios areconsidered, justified in a clearway, and presented in acompelling fashion5All scenarios are considered, fully justifiedin a clear way, and presented in aCompelling fashionMS WordreportExcelspreadsheet0 – 1.4 Marks 1.5 – 2.4 Marks 2.5 2.9 Marks 3.0 3.4 Marks 3.5 3.9 Marks 4 5 MarksStochastic decisionmodel includingchoice of distributionULO1,2,3/GLO1,3,4Total: 5 marks0Stochastic modellingnot included orinappropriate1.5Stochastic modelling ispoorly implemented andanalysed2.5Some effective stochasticmodelling is used with poorchoice of distribution3Some effective stochasticmodelling is used with someEaboration on distribution3.5Stochastic modelling is usedeffectively. Choice ofdistribution is justified5Stochastic modelling is used effectively.Choice of distribution is fully justifiedMS WordreportExcelspreadsheet0 – 1.4 Marks 1.5 – 2.4 Marks 2.5 2.9 Marks 3.0 3.4 Marks 3.5 3.9 Marks 4 5 MarksSimulated outputdistribution and riskanalysis reportULO1,2,3/GLO1,3,4Total: 5 marks0Simulated outputand risk analysis arenot included or areInappropriate1.5Unclear simulationoutputs are presented.Unclear analysis of theeffect of input risks2.5Some analysis of simulationoutput is presented. Itconsiders some relevantstochastic inputs, with somediscussion of their effect onoutput3Reasonable analysis ofsimulation outputs ispresented. It considers someof the main stochastic inputs,with some discussion of theireffect on output3.5Clear and reasonable analysisof simulation output. Acomprehensive considerationof the main stochastic inputs,with some discussion of theireffect on output5Clear and comprehensive analysis ofsimulation output is provided withComprehensive consideration of the mainstochastic inputs, and discussion of theireffect on outputMS WordreportExcelspreadsheet0 – 1.4 Marks 1.5 – 2.4 Marks 2.5 2.9 Marks 3.0 3.4 Marks 3.5 3.9 Marks 4 5 MarksReportULO3/GLO4Total: 5 marks0Report is notincluded or isinappropriate1.5Report is not astandalone document,Requiring review ofspreadsheet tounderstand results onwhich report is based.Displays a general lackof clarity or logic ininterpretation oranalysis of results2.5Report is largely a standalonedocument, though may requirea review of the spreadsheet tohelp understand some points.Some areas lack clarity or logicin interpretation or analysis ofresults, or there are a fewerrors or omissions3Report is a completelystandalone document.A clear and logical report isprovided across all areas, whereresults of analysis have beensatisfactorily examined andaccurately interpreted.Some areas of the report displaya lack of depth in understanding3.5Report is a completelystandalone document.A clear and logical report isprovided across all areas, whereResults of analysis have beenexamined, interpreted anddescribed accurately, preciselyand concisely. Report displays aUnderstanding across all areas5Report is a completely standalonedocument.A clear and logical report is providedacross all areas, where results of analysishave been examined, interpreted anddescribed accurately, precisely andconcisely. Report displays understandingAcross all areas.Report concludes with some key insightsMS Wordreport0 – 1.4 Marks 1.5 – 2.4 Marks 2.5 2.9 Marks 3.0 3.4 Marks 3.5 3.9 Marks 4 5 MarksTotal marks 30 (30%)如有需要，请加QQ：99515681 或邮箱：99515681@qq.com
“
添加老师微信回复‘’官网 辅导‘’获取专业老师帮助，或点击联系老师1对1在线指导。
